Bridgewater's Greg Jensen Puts 30 to 60 Percent Odds on a Fatal AI Disaster - Startup Fortune
Bridgewater's Greg Jensen Puts 30 to 60 Percent Odds on a Fatal AI Disaster - Startup Fortune
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Bridgewater's Greg Jensen Puts 30 to 60 Percent Odds on a Fatal AI Disaster
Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen, an early investor in both Op
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Bridgewater's Greg Jensen Puts 30 to 60 Percent Odds on a Fatal AI Disaster
Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen, an early investor in both OpenAI and Anthropic, told Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast he puts 30 to 60 percent odds on a fatal or financial AI disaster within two years. He compared the moment to February 2020, cited real AI security breaches, and has proposed a token tax and legal liability for AI developers in a New York Times op-ed, all while Bridgewater keeps ramping up its own AI compute spend.
Julian Lim
Sep 12, 2026 · 9:47 AM
5 min read
673 reads
Bridgewater co-CIO Greg Jensen is warning about AI risk from inside the machine, not from the sidelines. The useful part is not a neat doom percentage, but the fact that one of AI's early financiers wants regulators to move before the first serious disaster forces them to.
Greg Jensen helps run money at Bridgewater Associates and leads the firm's AI strategy, so when he tells Bloomberg's Odd Lots that AI safety has moved from theory into live incidents, you should listen closely. This is not a detached critic taking shots at Silicon Valley. It is a co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater, a firm that has built AIA Labs around artificial investment intelligence, saying the present level of complacency looks dangerous.
He did not give a clean 30 to 60 percent forecast. That difference matters.
On the September 11, 2026 Odd Lots episode, Jensen said the odds of a major AI-driven financial incident or physical disaster in the next few years were "way higher than anybody should be comfortable with." When 30 percent or 60 percent came up, he used the numbers to say he did not know the exact probability. The point was blunter than a modelled forecast: governments tend to wait until damage is obvious, and with AI that could mean waiting too long.
His comparison was February 2020, when COVID-19 was already visible in Asia and Italy before much of the West treated it as a daily-life problem. T